The SanityPrompt

This blog represents some small and occasional efforts to add a note of sanity to discussions of politics and policy. This blog best viewed with Internet Explorer @ 1024x768

Tuesday, October 26, 2004

RELAX! Get your resume ready.

We are going to Washington!

OK so maybe I am a little optimistic. Some might call it touched in the head. Others, denial. But hey, what's the alternative but sedatives?

But I just feel it in my bones. I am now predicting (I know -- bold of me isn't it one week out?) that Kerry wins by 3 pts and gets about 305 electoral votes. There are a number of reasons for this optimism beyond those mentioned above. 1) the performance of an incumbent relative to the latest polls tends to mirror his last percentages while the undecideds break for the challenger. 2) most polls appear to be tied although I concede some recent movement towards Bush but argue its offset by some other polls that broke towards Kerry. 3) the swing state polls are looking very good although Zogby's latest numbers do contradict those other findings. And...

4) I just came across this site with some interesting projections using simulation techniques from statistics that are increasingly common in political science. The call is for a Kerry victory (using polling numbers from tracking polls). Check out the site and see what you think. It is true that two other models predict a Bush win so maybe this is just selective attention on my part. But despite my belief in efficient markets, I am dubious of the market based models such as the betting line in Ireland or Iowa's election market. I think there is too much investor bias and lack of information. So I guess I am betting on a Bush bubble. For those of you interested in following the polls here are the key links:
For a complete discussion of electoin prospects see this article in the Washington Post.


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